Kestrel Yard Ltd: can we raise a Series B in twelve months, and should we go enterprise to do it?
01The verdict
Not raisable in twelve months on the current path, but fixable. The runway is shorter than the board thinks, retention is weaker than reported, and the enterprise pipeline is mostly hope. Going enterprise is the right move, two quarters too early. Fix the burn and retention first, then rebuild for enterprise buyers from a position of strength.
02The numbers, restated
The board pack is not wrong so much as generous. Restated on the same basis a Series B investor will use:
| Measure | Board pack | The Read | Why they differ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash runway | 16 months | 11 months | £0.4m of unpaid invoices counted as cash; two committed hires and annual insurance left out |
| Net burn per month | £240k | £310k | As above, averaged over the next two quarters |
| Net revenue retention | 108% | 94% | A one-off price rise counted as expansion |
| Enterprise pipeline | £1.9m | £0.42m | 11 of 14 deals have no economic buyer identified |
03What's actually wrong, ranked
-
The runway is 11 months, not 16.
At £310k a month the company starts a Series B process in month five with six months of cash left. Investors will see that before they see the product.
Cost to fix£72k a month of cuts, listed in section 04. No redundancies needed.If you don'tYou raise from weakness, or take a bridge on worse terms. -
Small customers are quietly leaving.
Customers with fewer than three sites are 68% of logos, 31% of ARR and 80% of churned revenue. They cost as much to support as large ones.
Cost to fixA minimum-site price and an annual self-serve tier. Six weeks, run by your finance lead.If you don'tRetention stays below 100% and the Series B story does not hold. -
The enterprise pipeline is three real deals.
Two of the three stalled at security review: there is no SSO and no SOC 2 report. The other eleven are warm conversations with operations managers who cannot sign.
Cost to fixSSO in one sprint; SOC 2 Type I started now, ready in about four months.If you don'tEvery enterprise deal dies in procurement, however good the demo. -
The website and deck speak to the wrong buyer.
Both are written for a site manager choosing a tool, not a VP of logistics approving a platform. That is fine today and a problem in two quarters.
Cost to fixA rebuilt narrative, site and deck. Worth doing once items 1 to 3 are moving.If you don'tEnterprise buyers read you as a small-business tool.
04What to do first
- Weeks 1 to 2
Reforecast and cut £72k a month: pause two unfilled hires (£28k), defer the office move (£21k), end the agency retainer (£14k), remove overlapping tools (£9k). Runway moves from 11 to 14 months.
- Weeks 2 to 6
Reprice the small end: minimum-site pricing for new customers, annual self-serve for existing small accounts at renewal. Target retention of 105% within two quarters.
- Weeks 3 to 12
Make enterprise deals buyable: SSO shipped, SOC 2 Type I under way, and every pipeline deal re-qualified against a named economic buyer.
- Month 4
Decide on the enterprise rebuild with the restated numbers in hand. If retention is above 100% and two enterprise deals are in contract, start it.
05What I'd leave alone
The core product and the engineering team. Customers who stay use it heavily, and the roadmap is sound. Not everything needs fixing, and changing things that work would cost you time you do not have.
06Do you need me?
For item 2, no: your finance lead can run the repricing with the pricing model in the full Read. For items 1 and 3, yes: a ten-week fixed-price Project, quoted separately, ending with a board pack an investor can read cold and a pipeline you can defend.
